BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 4 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering this is a free card and I look forward to pursuing the GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I won my first seat into it a couple weeks back and I will try to receive my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, then I will probably have a couple shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really aren’t any cash game guards this week for me but I moved with Yana because I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so I like the ground she brings to the table. I also think she wins the fight and I think she is going to be the fighter going for takedowns. I don’t understand how high her ceiling is but in money games it doesn’t really matter too much since we do not have to strike 1st place in a double-up. I’d anticipate about 10x from Yana at a decision win and I’ll take that all day in my cash games.
GPP play of the week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights tend to score highly as there are a great deal of scrambles and the grappling advances really add up. I expect this to be a really fun battle, but it should be Smolka that is the one going for the takedowns. I’m always trying to find a minimum of 10x in my fighters and at $8.3k I’d be shocked if Smolka did not get that with a win. The lowest he’s ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he has even scored 162 vs Nguyen and he’s got a 61-point reduction to Elliott that is more DK points than Schnell’s triumph over Beltran. I adore Smolka as a GPP drama here and when he wins I’d expect near 100 DK points.
Underdog drama of the week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a struggle I expect to stay standing, I have quite a lot of curiosity in this fight. I believe it’s going to be an action-packed fight and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is also the mid-range fight of this week, so I think a KO from guy would have a good chance to set them on the perfect lineup. I enjoy it more because I am picking the underdog to get the knockout and that I anticipate Millender to be the greater owned fighter. I will have this struggle in over half my lineups, but that I shall most likely have at least twice the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I believe it is a much better GPP fight than it is for cash games, but I believe dos Santos is currently in play for money since he is an underdog and that I have him winning. I don’t feel confident in several underdogs this week, but I’ll have a fantastic amount of vulnerability to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will require a finish at that wages and that I don’t see that occurring. If he wins a clear 30-27 decision, then he likely scores mid 70’s and at his cost that will not win anyone a GPP. I don’t believe he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I believe he uses his wrestling to keep the fight standing. Even if he can go for takedowns then I don’t see him filing Moraes. So, it needs to be a KO out of him to pay off that salary and I am not inclined to take that risk with my money. That is why he’s my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I am 61-37 to get +209.69 (+$20,969) because May 19th on Premium Plays)

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